Letter from Max Grudin: What is Putin's End Game?

This letter was written by Max Grudin of Scarsdale:

Dear Friends and Neighbors:

Thank you for your support of the Ukrainian people.

The conflict in Ukraine has not ended, we are all aware of the suffering: over 10 million Ukrainians have been displaced, every second child does not live under the home roof, and Russia routinely targets civilians.
I want to focus on other aspects: the situation with Russia, the end game, and ways to help.

Here are a few snippets from the Russian media - they read like an upside down world:

● “This is not a war just against Ukraine. This is a war against all the rot inside Russia that has been betraying our country over the last few years”: Dmitry Rogozin, Director of the Russian Space Agency.
● On a popular right-wing show “Solovyov TV” it was claimed that Russia needs the
Ukraine land, and “all that filth that escapes to the West might as well stay there”.
● On the same show other presenters discussed potential nuclear strikes against Europe.
Russian politicians make calls to “denazify” Poland and other neighboring nations.
● Putin has mentioned that “national traitors” will be “spat out like gnats” during the
“necessary self-cleansing of society”.
● Some Russian media claim that both sides are to blame for the casualties.

At this point many people in Russia know what is happening. It is scary when people continue to support the war despite seeing the bloodshed. Members of the economic and political elites are undoubtedly aware of the horrors on the ground. I call on people who are in touch with Russian elites to remind them of their responsibility to guide Russia. I have heard of a wealthy Russian who wanted to donate to a Ukrainian humanitarian cause, but he preferred to remain anonymous and he wanted to avoid any mention of Ukraine on his social media. It is important for such people to act like leaders.

People from many nations and ethnic backgrounds have reached out to me with their support and donations. Yet 35 of the 193 governments abstained from the UN resolution demanding an end to the Russian invasion. We live in an educated and international community - it is fair to ask those governments to stop turning a blind eye on the ongoing slaughter in Ukraine.

What is the end game?
Just a couple of days ago Russia declared that its focus will shift to the east of Ukraine. That does not mean that Russia would not want to take over the entire country if an opportunity presented itself. On the other hand Ukraine does not have enough weapons for a major counter attack. The discussion of the end of hostilities assumes no major changes on the battlefield.

Historical connections between Ukraine and Russia go back 1000 years or so. Ukraine that is West-oriented contradicts Putin’s vision of it being a part of the “Russian world”. It is tragic that the Russian leadership views Ukraine only as a sacred “territory” that must make Russia stronger in its struggle against “the West.” Those historical ties and the prior aggression against the Crimea and Donbass mean that at the very least the Russian leadership aims to make some territorial gains in order to declare this war a success. There is a full expectation on the Russian side that as one condition for the end of conflict is for Ukraine to recognize Crimea, annexed since 2014, as part of Russia. The Donbass status is less clear.

The territorial dispute is hard to resolve. I understand that the vast majority of Ukrainians are against making any territorial concessions. They feel they have had enough war over the last 8 years and they would like peace on their terms rather than on terms of a war criminal. The Ukrainian leadership has injected a degree of pragmatism and any agreement will have to be accepted by the people. The people of Ukraine will come together to rebuild their country as a modern European society.
Even past the immediate cessation of hostilities Putin will be viewed as a war criminal by most in the West and likely a loser when the Russian public realizes what has transpired. That is not a way forward. In the long term Russia needs a leadership that can navigate the country out of this terrible situation.

What else can be done?
I want to emphasize the gratitude people of Ukraine express to all the support and donations. “Razom for Ukraine” is a US charity that helps with humanitarian supplies as well as tourniquets and protective equipment for territorial defense such as knee pads, bulletproof vests, etc. Things like that are sorely needed, as people are defending their land, their families and lives. As the situation on the ground changes I will be happy to let you know other most effective ways to donate.
Please call our political leaders about helping Ukraine with humanitarian supplies as well as with weapons. Also, if you are from Russia or other countries whose governments did not oppose this slaughter, please reach out to people there.

Max Grudin
mgrudin@gmail.com